Census Estimates Show Continued Population Decline, Out-Migration Partly to Blame
(Kurt Metzger, March 17, 2024)
Oakland County, MI – While last decade brought slow, steady population growth to Oakland County (up 71,289 or 5.9 percent between 2010 and 2020), the first three years of this decade have combined to bring a loss of almost 4,000 residents, according to new estimates released by the Census Bureau on March 14. [Figure 1] 2023’s estimate of 1,270,426 is almost 3,976 less than the 2020 Census count.
Population estimates utilize four major data components: Births, Deaths, Immigration and Domestic Migration. When Deaths are subtracted from Births, the result is Natural Increase (or Decrease). When Immigration and Domestic Migration are added to one another, the result is Net Migration.
Figure 2 provides a picture of births, deaths and natural increase/decrease since 2010. While births had decreased and deaths increased during the last decade, the pandemic that began in March 2020 accelerated both trends, resulting in the lowest level of natural increase since my records go back to 1940 (a gain of only 49 residents). 2022 saw an increase in births back to a level just below that in 2019. However, deaths also increased again in 2022, resulting in a second year of very minimal natural increase (up 437 persons). The 2023 estimates show a slight decrease in births and a significant drop in deaths back to pre-pandemic levels. The result was an increase of 1,702 residents – still well below pre-pandemic levels.
Figure 3 illustrates the migration components of the formula. Immigration totals, which were fairly consistent between 2010 and 2017, decreased in 2018 and reached their low point in 2021 (due to national policies that reduced U.S. immigration).
With immigration increasing nationally, Oakland County experienced a return to totals seen between 2010 and 2017 (up 175 percent over 2021), rising from 2,000 in 2021 to 5,515 in 2022. The 2023 numbers were even better, rising to 6,558 immigrants selecting Oakland County.
While this was good news for the county, the gain was more than wiped out by the 160 percent increase in domestic out-migration (residents leaving the county for other parts of Michigan and other states).
Net out-migration has been the theme since 2014, but 2022’s total of 7,290 residents easily surpassed any annual loss measured since 2010. This trend accelerated in 2023 as estimates show 8,944 more residents leaving for other counties in the U.S. than arriving in Oakland. This is by far the largest out-migration cohort since 2010, and probably for decades before.
What does the future hold for the 4 components of Oakland County’s population?
Births will likely stabilize over the next few years as we put the pandemic in the rearview mirror. However, Oakland County’s age structure and national trends of decreasing birth rates will maintain birth numbers in a narrow window of minimal growth.
Deaths are expected to decrease from their inflated pandemic levels, but still return to their steady pre-pandemic increase due to the county’s aging population.
Immigration returned to recent historical levels in 2022 and grew in 2023. While the best-case scenario is that the 2023 total gets replicated in the years to come, it is important that county officials prioritize efforts around immigrant attraction. Plans need to start immediately because states and communities across the country will be developing their attraction plans as well.
Domestic Migration has become the most important component of population change for Oakland County, as it has for the State of Michigan and counties and communities throughout. The 2022 net loss was particularly painful for the county, uniquely affected by students returning to reopened universities, in addition to the usual trends of young people leaving for education and jobs and older residents retiring to other parts of Michigan, as well as Florida, Arizona, the Carolinas, etc. Expectations for a slowing of out-migration post-pandemic were dashed when the 2023 estimate came out to be 23 percent higher!
While it is clear that Oakland County continues to be an employment magnet, residents are still choosing to leave the county. Why? High property taxes, lack of affordable housing, poor transportation options, etc. have been some of the reasons put forth.
The State of Michigan has launched an effort called “Growing Michigan Together” to address population decline. The workgroup has been studying the reasons for population decline, including those mentioned above, with recommendations that could help state-wide as well as here in Oakland County.
