SEMCOG Shares “Oakland County by the Numbers” Forecast

(Kurt Metzger, Dec. 23, 2023)

The Oakland County Planners’ meeting, held on November 29, 2023, featured a presentation entitled, “Oakland County by the Numbers,” by Southeast Michigan Council of Governments’ (SEMCOG) staff that detailed their 2050 Regional Forecast.

The presentation began with a detailed summary of recent trends in the 7-county SEMCOG region, with an Oakland County emphasis. The following are some of the highlights of these trends:

The pandemic had multiple impacts on Southeast Michigan’s economy and labor market, as the region lost 10 percent of its jobs in a single year.
We have had a rapid recovery since the pandemic’s end, but the “new normal” is still unclear
Between 2010 and 2020, Oakland County (OC) gained an annual average of 7,000 residents.
Between 2020 and 2022, the county averaged an annual loss of 1,500.
Between 2010 and 2020, Oakland County averaged 3.075 more births than deaths on an annual basis.
Between 2020 and 2022, the county averaged 813 more deaths than births.
While reduced since 2020, international migration (immigration) has remained a growth component, averaging 5,500 a year between 2010 and 2020, and 3,800 a year since.
Domestic migration, on the other hand, has remained negative throughout. The annual loss last decade was 2,300, rising to 5,200 a year between 2020 and 2022.
A major factor in our population loss is the aging of our population. Persons 65+ represent more than a quarter of the county’s and region’s population and is projected to grow for years to come.
On the other end of the age spectrum, the population under 18 years of age represents one-fifth and is projected to decrease.
Diversity is increasing with growing Asian, Hispanic and Multi-race populations.

Following a discussion of regional trends between 2020 and 2050, the presentation moved to Oakland County’s future. Major highlights:

Total population will increase by 113,443, or 8.9 percent.
The population under 18 will decrease by 3,223, or 1.7 percent.
The senior population (65+) will grow by 83,271, or 36.9 percent.
The population living in group quarters – particularly assisted living facilities and nursing homes – will increase by 35.3 percent.
Total housing units (not differentiated by type or affordability) will be up 41,918, or 7.6 percent.
Total households will increase by 7.6 percent, but those with children will increase by just 0.9 percent, while those with seniors rise by 31.1 percent.
Total employment will increase by 121,316, or 11.8 percent
Employment in manufacturing and retail trade will decrease, while rather large increases will be seen in Prof/Tech Services and Health Care.

There is a great deal more information in the presentation on these trends, as well as an explanation of how to access local data for counties and communities on the SEMCOG website.