Census Estimates Show Population Losses Across State and Country
(Kurt Metzger, March 24, 2022)
Today, March 24, the Census Bureau released the first set of population estimates since last year’s release of the 2020 Census results.
Increasing deaths, due to an aging population and COVID, resulted in 73 percent of the nation’s counties experiencing “natural decrease” – more deaths than births.
Michigan, which experienced a population loss of 26,520 between April 1, 2020 and July 1, 2021, recorded over 17,000 more deaths than births during this period. Seventy-six of our 83 counties (91.6 percent) experienced “natural decrease.” The only counties to record more births than deaths were Kent, Ottawa, Washtenaw, Kalamazoo, Ingham, Isabella and Ionia.
The Detroit metropolitan area, made up of Lapeer, Livingston, Macomb, Oakland, St. Clair and Wayne counties, saw its population decrease by 26,836, due to natural decrease of 5,231 (all six counties had more deaths than births) and heavy out-migration to other areas of the country (including rest of Michigan).
The Census Bureau estimates that 24,560 more residents left the metropolitan area over the 15 month period than migrated in. This loss was softened somewhat by the arrival of 2,390 immigrants. While domestic outmigration numbers are similar, if slightly higher, than those of recent years, is attributable to decreased immigration and natural decrease. The 2020-21 loss is the third in a row (and largest of the three) after gains in seven of the previous eight years.
Oakland County’s population increased by 72,033 residents, or 6.0 percent, between 2010 and 2020. This growth was a factor of natural increase – more births than deaths until 2020, steady immigration numbers, and relatively small losses from domestic outmigration. The new estimates show a reversal of fortunes, in that the county lost 4,378 residents in the last 18 months. This was the third highest loss among Michigan’s 83 counties, exceeded by Wayne County (-18,745) and Macomb County (-4,425). The components driving this result were 1,021 more deaths than births; a loss of 4,586 residents due to domestic outmigration; and a paltry immigrant total of 1,260, which is about 1/5th than annual average of the last decade.
The next few months will bring more detailed information from the 2020 Census, beyond the population counts by race that were delivered for redistricting purposes last August. These data will cover the county as a whole, as well as all local governments. We will also be receiving details on the age and race/ethnicity of the 2021 county population. In addition, I will be diving into the 2016-20 American Community Survey file that was released last week, to better understand the demographic, socioeconomic and housing characteristics of communities across Oakland County and the State.
