Governor’s Race is Close According to Poll, Other Races Looked At

Governor’s Race is Close According to Poll, Other Races Looked At
(Public Policy Polling, North Carolina, press release, Sept. 9, 2014)
PPP’s newest Michigan poll finds Gary Peters matching his largest lead ever, which he had last October during the middle of the government shutdown. Peters is at 43% to 36% for Terri Lynn Land with third party candidates combining for 7%. The story of the race is Land’s continually declining favorability. She has dropped a net 28 points since December, from starting out at +11 (34/23) to falling all the way down now to -17 (32/49). Michigan is a Democratic state to begin with, and Peters is getting 12% of the Republican vote, while only 5% of Democrats say they’re going to vote for Land. Voters remain pretty ambivalent toward Peters himself- 35% have a favorable view of him to 36% with an unfavorable one. But with Land extremely unpopular, he continues to be in good shape. One issue playing to Peters’ considerable advantage is the minimum wage- voters support increasing it to $10 an hour by a 58/34 spread.
It continues to look more and more like the action in Michigan will be in the Governor’s race. Rick Snyder is at 43% to 42% for Mark Schauer with third party candidates combining for 6%. Snyder continues to be unpopular with only 43% of voters approving of him to 51% who disapprove. Schauer’s name recognition has increased from 51% to 68% over the last couple months but there hasn’t been much change in the close divide on his favorability- 35% of voters see him positively, 33% in a negative light.
Snyder finds himself in trouble after winning by an overwhelming margin in 2010 because several of his major accomplishments have proven to be very unpopular. Voters say by a 48/36 margin that they would vote to repeal the right to work law if it was on the ballot. And they oppose the increase in pension taxes that’s been highlighted in early campaign ads by a 74/17 spread. One thing that may be helping to keep Snyder afloat is the popularity of Medicaid expansion in the state- five months after it took effect voters support the ‘Healthy Michigan’ program by 24 points, 50/26. That’s one issue where Snyder is winning some favor across party lines.
“It’s looking more and more like the Michigan Senate race might be off the board as Gary Peters pulls away,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But the race for Governor looks like it will provide plenty of excitement.”
PPP surveyed 687 likely voters from September 4^th to 7th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.7%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Snyder’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Schauer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q4 The candidates for Governor are Republican
Rick Snyder, Democrat Mark Schauer,
Libertarian Mary Buzuma, Green Party
candidate Paul Homeniuk, and U.S. Taxpayers
Party candidate Mark McFarlin. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Rick Snyder ……………………………………………. 43%
Mark Schauer …………………………………………. 42%
Mary Buzuma………………………………………….. 3%
Paul Homeniuk ……………………………………….. 1%
Mark McFarlin…………………………………………. 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q5 Horse race, with third-party supporters asked if
they’d vote Snyder or Schauer
Rick Snyder ……………………………………………. 46%
Mark Schauer …………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Terri Lynn Land?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Peters?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q8 The candidates for U.S. Senate are Republican
Terri Lynn Land, Democrat Gary Peters,
Libertarian Jim Fulner, Green Party candidate
Chris Wahmhoff, and U.S. Taxpayers Party
candidate Richard Matkin. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Terri Lynn Land ……………………………………….. 36%
Gary Peters…………………………………………….. 43%
Jim Fulner ………………………………………………. 4%
Chris Wahmhoff ………………………………………. 1%
Richard Matkin………………………………………… 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q9 Horse race, with third-party supporters asked if
they’d vote Land or Peters
Terri Lynn Land ……………………………………….. 40%
Gary Peters…………………………………………….. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q10 The candidates for Attorney General are
Republican Bill Schuette, Democrat Mark
Totten, Liberatarian Justin Altman, Green Party
candidate John Anthony LaPietra, and U.S.
Taxpayers Party candidate Gerald Van Sickle.
If the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Bill Schuette……………………………………………. 36%
Mark Totten…………………………………………….. 36%
Justin Altman ………………………………………….. 5%
John Anthony LaPietra……………………………… 2%
Gerald Van Sickle ……………………………………. 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q11 The candidates for Secretary of State are
Republican Ruth Johnson, Democrat Godfrey
Dillard, Libertarian Jamie Lewis, Natural Law
Party candidate Jason Gatties, and U.S.
Taxpayers Party candidate Robert Gale. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Ruth Johnson………………………………………….. 39%
Godfrey Dillard………………………………………… 36%
Jamie Lewis ……………………………………………. 3%
Jason Gatties………………………………………….. 2%
Robert Gale ……………………………………………. 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q12 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Carl
Levin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q13 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Debbie Stabenow’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Democrats in the Michigan legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republicans in the Michigan legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q16 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
the state legislature today, would you vote for
the Democratic or Republican candidate from
your district?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q17 Do you support or oppose the right-to-work
legislation passed in Michigan in 2012?
Support ………………………………………………….. 41%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q18 Would you support or oppose a ballot measure
to repeal the right-to-work law?
Support ………………………………………………….. 48%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q19 Do you support or oppose the increase in taxes
on retirement income from pensions that was
passed in 2011?
Support ………………………………………………….. 17%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 74%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q20 Do you support or oppose Healthy Michigan,
the Medicaid expansion program that began
this spring?
Support ………………………………………………….. 50%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q21 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage to $10 an hour?
Support ………………………………………………….. 58%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q22 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 49%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q23 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 48%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q24 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 51%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q25 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 50%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q26 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 49%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q27 Is your favorite Major League Baseball team
the Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Chicago
Cubs, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers,
Milwaukee Brewers, New York Yankees,
Toronto Blue Jays, or some other team?
Braves …………………………………………………… 1%
Red Sox…………………………………………………. 2%
Cubs ……………………………………………………… 4%
Indians …………………………………………………… 2%
Tigers…………………………………………………….. 74%
Brewers …………………………………………………. 1%
Yankees …………………………………………………. 2%
Blue Jays ……………………………………………….. 1%
Someone else / Not a baseball fan …………….. 14%
Q28 (Q28-29 asked only of Tigers fans) What do
you think the outcome of the 2014 season will
be for the Tigers? Do you think they will win
the World Series, win the American League
pennant but not the World Series, make the
playoffs but not win the pennant, or not make
the playoffs at all?
Win the World Series ……………………………….. 19%
Win the pennant but not the World Series …… 25%
Make the playoffs but not win the pennant…… 39%
Not make the playoffs at all……………………….. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q29 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Brad
Ausmus is doing as manager?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q30 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 5%
Q31 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 23%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q32 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q33 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 34%
Q34 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 80%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q35 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
Q36 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
Learn more about Public Policy Polling at http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/09/peters-out-to-biggest-lead-governors-race-in-michigan-close.html#more.

Save this post to PDFPrint this post